Correzione momentanea per il crude oil

Scritto il alle 12:09 da [email protected]

Dopo aver toccato il massimo di marzo 2012, il contratto relativo al petrolio Wti ritraccia leggermente fino scendere sotto area 106$/barile. Difficilmente si tratterá di un’inversione di tendenza duratura, visto che la situazione geopolitica in Egitto rimane molto tesa. Tuttavia, il traffico di navi attraverso il Canale di Suez rimane per ora costante, con un transito che rimane tranquillo anche negli altri principali porti della zona. Inoltre, i dati rilasciati il 14 agosto hanno evidenziato un calo delle scorte di pertrolio, anche questo fattore dovrebbe suggerire almeno il mantenimento dei prezzi attuali.

Tecnicamente, dopo aver rotto la resistenza di lungo periodo in area 99$ il contratto WTI ha effettuato uno strappo rialzista superiore al 10% in circa 2 settimane, fino a toccare il massimo in area 109 a metá luglio. Ora il prezzo ha formato sul grafico un interessante canale ribassista proprio grazie al terzo massimo relativo del 16 agosto. Il primo obiettivo del ritracciamento in corso si trova in area 105. La base della conformazione grafica evidenziata si trova in area 102, ma difficilmente vedremo toccare quei livelli nel breve periodo.

ImmagineInoltre abbiamo notato che i prezzi attuali corrispondono esattamente all’importante livello tecnico evidenziato dall’estensione 161.8% di Fibonacci, calcolato unendo il massimo di settembre scorso ed il minimo di aprile. Direttamente sul grafico notiamo come recentemente l’oscillatore stocastico abbia evidenziato le partenze rialziste dei prezzi. Pertanto é ora opportuno aspettare il ritorno dell’oscillatore nella zona di ipervenduto ed una successiva ripartenza per una nuova eventuale reazione dei prezzi.

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