Pausa momentanea per il franco svizzero?

Scritto il alle 13:14 da [email protected]

Il franco svizzero ha guadagnato oltre il 5% nei confronti del dollaro USA nelle ultime 4 settimane. Il biglietto verde si é recentemente dimostrato molto debole nei confronti di molte valute nell’ultimo periodo, la volatilitá é aumentata da quando il board della Fed ha iniziato a creare confusione su una possibile riduzione di acquisto di Treasuries e mortgages a partire dai prossimi mesi. Evidenziamo nel grafico sottostante come il prezzo attuale del cambio USD/CHF risulti essere un livello chiave e come nel recente passato (metá aprile e metá giugno) abbia fatto ripartire verso l’alto le quotazioni del biglietto verde. Tecnicamente, una situazione molto simile si é verificata sul cambio GBP/CHF pochi giorni fa, e la ripartenza da area 1.41 é avvenuta con una forte accelerazione rialzista. Attendiamo quindi un eventuale pattern di inversione dopo un’accelerazione ribassista del prezzo. Non si potrá comunque parlare di inversione fino al raggiungimento di area 0.9260, ovvero fino all’eventuale rottura del canale ribassista che sta accompagnando le quotazioni nell’ultimo mese. L’importanza del supporto 0.92 é aumentata anche dal livello 23.6% di Fibonacci che si trova semplicemente unendo i massimi e i minimi dell’anno. L’oscillatore stocastico segnala peró ancora un forte ipervenduto, il dato relativo all’occupazione non-agricola statunitense risultato nettamente inferiore alle attese ha provocato un generale forte sell-off sul biglietto verde, proiettandolo verso il minimo delle ultime 7 settimane anche contro l’altra “valuta rifugio”, ovvero lo yen. Attendiamo ora il dato sulle richieste di sussidi di disoccupazione che molto probabilmente deciderá il trend dei prossimi giorni con una certezza: la volatilitá delle ultime sedute permarrá ancora nei prossimi giorni.

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