Euro/Dollaro in attesa di Draghi

Scritto il alle 11:37 da [email protected]

Ogni primo giovedí del mese, alle ore 13.45, la Banca Centrale Europea comunica il livello dei tassi di interesse di riferimento. La seduta di questo mese é impermeata dall’incertezza, in quanto molti economisti sarebbero a favore di un taglio dei tassi di 25 punti base.
Difficilmente Mario Draghi deciderá per un taglio vista la bontá delle ultime notizie di crescita del prodotto interno lordo arrivate da Germania e Regno Unito e dall’andamento dell’inflazione. E’ interessante notare come l’EUR/USD in attesa della notizia si sia "appoggiato" sulla media mobile a 200 periodi, livello molto importante per le analisi di lungo periodo. La giornata di giovedí sará decisiva per le sorti del futuro del trend di questo cambio.
Anche tecnicamente la situazione si presenta molto interessante per diversi motivi: la vicinanza alla media mobile semplice a 200 periodi appena superata al rialzo, l’importanza della resistenza di area 1.618% dell’estensione di Fibonacci evidenziata sul grafico (che al momento rimane l’obiettivo rialzista) ed il mantenimento della trendline che accompagna i minimi crescenti dai minimi di fine marzo.
L’impostazione dell’oscillatore stocastico che esce da una fase di ipervenduto, conferma che per ora l’impostazione é rialzista. Per un’analisi di piú lungo periodo, manteniamo sul grafico il disegno della compressione triangolare (evidenziata con linea rossa tratteggiata) per capire quando avverrá il breakout di uno dei due livelli.

Stefano Gianti
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