Rialzo per l’obbligazionario USA attraverso il Giappone

Scritto il alle 10:42 da [email protected]

Il neoeletto governatore della Bank of Japan ha imposto un target di inflazione al 2% per il proprio Paese. Come raggiungere questo obiettivo? Aumentando la base monetaria, che potrebbe anche raddoppiare nel corso dei prossimi due anni. L’obiettivo è quello di cercare di fare uscire il Giappone da quello stato di deflazione che imbriglia l’economia domestica da ormai quindici anni.

Haruhiko Kuroda estende di fatto il piano di quantitative easing giá innescato da mesi dalla BoJ, fornendo peró una ulteriore accelerazione alla quantitá di acquisti che avverrá a breve. La banca centrale acquisterá quindi titoli di Stato domestici. Cosa faranno peró i risparmiatori privati? Difficilmente faranno gli stessi acquisti, anzi. Il decennale giapponese rende ora lo 0.65%, con una valuta che si è deprezzata del 30% contro euro e dollaro e tenderá a deprezzarsi ulteriormente. Gli investitori privati tenderanno pertanto ad effettuare acquisti in valuta diversa dallo yen, iniziando dalle obbligazioni corporate e titoli di Stato USA. Con un’allocazione del 10% soltanto dei propri risparmi, si stima che il Giappone inonderá i mercati esteri con 850 miliardi di dollari di liquiditá nei prossimi anni. Meglio della Fed, che comunque nel frattempo continua con i propri acquisti di titoli di Stato e mortgage a ritmo di 85 miliardi al mese, nonostante l’intenzione di voler ridurre il piano di acquisti.

Giá la prima asta di titoli di Stato italiani dopo la notizia è stata un buon successo, addirittura il rendimento del Bot a 3 mesi è crollato a 0.243% (dallo 0.765% precedente) facendo segnare un minimo storico. In generale, ci aspettiamo una discesa dei rendimenti di titoli di Stato nel breve periodo, soprattutto di strumenti denominati in euro e in dollari.

Grazie alla liquiditá attualmente in circolazione, c’è ancora spazio per il rialzo dei mercati, sia per l’azionario che per l’obbligazionario. La base monetaria tenderá a crescere sia nel 2013 sia nel 2014 e molta liquiditá verrá parcheggiata proprio sui titoli di Stato non per i loro rendimenti (visto che si tenderá nell’incertezza economica a privilegiare i Governi virtuosi come Germania, Austria e Finlandia per l’area euro) ma per diversificazione valutaria. Inoltre, verranno privilegiate le scadenze entro i dieci anni, visto che nelle scadenze piú lunghe esiste maggiore volatilitá a seconda della variazione delle aspettative di inflazione e dell’andamento dei tassi di interesse.

Il future del T-Note a 10 anni manterrá pertanto il trend rialzista in corso, iniziato con il mantenimento del doppio minimo di area 131. La rottura dei massimi relativi precedenti di area 132.10 e 132.75 ci fa capire la forza del trend in corso, possiamo aspettarci a breve dopo l’attuale ritracciamento, anche la rottura della resistenza di area 134. L’obiettivo di medio periodo rimane il raggiungimento del livello di doppio massimo toccato a novembre 2012, ovvero area 135.

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