Tempo di Tnote

Scritto il alle 20:36 da [email protected]

E’ prevedibile per le prossime sedute aspettarsi un aumento dei rendimenti sul titolo decennale statunitense (Tnote 10yrs) di circa 15 punti base. Il superamento del massimo storico del Dow Jones 30 ed il tentativo di aggiornamento del massimo anche da parte dello Standard and Poor’s 500 ha favorito anche un aumento dei rendimenti sul mercato obbligazionario (solitamente se il mercato azionario sale, il valore delle obbligazioni tende a scendere e di conseguenza salgono i loro rendimenti). L’8 marzo il decennale a stelle e strisce ha segnato il recente massimo in area 2.08%, per poi ritracciare ai valori attuali.

Ovviamente la continuazione della politica accomodante di Ben Bernanke rimane di fondamentale importanza per mantenere il livello dei tassi a questo livello minimo, anche nell’ultima riunione del FOMC è stato confermato che il piano di quantitative easing continuerá ad un ritmo di 85 miliardi di dollari al mese (45 per l’acquisto di titoli di Stato e 40 per mortgages). Soprattutto il target trimestrale sulla disoccupazione abbassato al 7.5% dopo i buoni recenti dati potrebbe favorire un’estensione rialzista del mercato azionario, favorendo la corrispondente vendita di Tnote, soprattutto sulle scadenze piú lunghe (10 e 30 anni in particolare).

Anche l’analisi tecnica conferma la nostra tesi con il future decennale che si trova ora appena sotto un livello di resistenza importante (area 133.30): è prevedibile un ritracciamento verso il basso di almeno una figura, questa variazione di prezzo comporterebbe un aumento del rendimento del decennale stesso di 15 punti base come affermato poc’anzi.

Ancora piú interessante risulta essere la costruzione di un piccolo portafoglio long/short con le scadenze con l’eventuale apertura di posizioni long sul 2 e 5 anni e allo stesso momento short sulle scadenze a 10 e 30 anni, sotto troviamo un’immagine che ne riassume l’andamento recente:

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