18 June, 2012 14:13

Scritto il alle 14:13 da [email protected]

Nonostante la vittoria relativa delle forze che sostengono l’Euro, le sfide ancora aperte in Grecia restano enormi e la sensazione più diffusa è che il giorno del giudizio sia solo rimandato: con il partito Syrizas che ha accresciuto il proprio consenso del 10%, è poco probabile che qualsiasi prossimo governo possa trovare più facilmente la via per le implementazioni richieste dalla troika. A Parigi invece il rafforzamento dei socialisti di Hollande prelude ad un futuro redde rationem con le richieste di maggiori pressioni fiscali da parte della Germania: se i mercati si convincessero che la Francia sta rallentando il suo processo di rafforzamento di bilancio, infatti, gli investitori perderebbero la loro fiducia e vedremmo un allargamento degli spread sui titoli francesi con il pericolo di vedere minacciato quel che rimane del rating a tripla A ed un conseguente innalzamento dei costi che verrebbe subito in primo luogo dalla Germania. Rimbalzo dell’Eurodollaro con probabile obiettivo $1,2820-30 nel breve termine per quanto lo scenario rimanga ribassista. Ritorno degli appetiti rialzisti in apertura dei mercati asiatici con i trader a scommettere sulla possibilità che la Grecia riesca a rimanere in Eurozona: ribassi per i cosiddetti safe-haven e ripresa degli asset a maggior rendimento in attesa che venga superato anche il secondo ostacolo della settimana, ovvero che si compia la promessa di un ulteriore Quantitative Easing da parte della Fed. Un passo indietro su questo fronte, infatti, potrebbe provocare un rapido pulback delle posizioni in accumulo, tese a recuperare il terreno perduto nell’ondata di vendite di maggio.

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